orea’s General Staff Department conducted a tactical exercise simulating the first week of a war on the Korean Peninsula and reported the results to the party’s Central Military Commission. The General Staff Department plans to develop measures for each military branch and specialty based on the exercise results and incorporate them into the army’s regular winter exercise beginning Dec. 1….
The General Staff Department digitized the data based on the mock war’s progression, using a time scale, and replayed the war using a computer program to produce attrition and combat sustainability indexes, which were included in the final report.
In the actual report, the scenario showed the loss of air and naval superiority in the first two days of the war, the launch and interception of some of the Strategic Force’s missiles on Days 3 and 4, infiltration attempts by the Army and Special Operation Force on Days 5 and 6, and the seizure of complete operational initiative on Day 7.
The report’s conclusion stated that the North Korean military would likely be at a disadvantage in the early phases of a war, which was duly reported to the party’s Central Military Commission.
In its analysis of each service branch, the report noted that if the Air Force fails to gain air superiority in the early stages due to inferior forces, limitations could arise in joint operations with the Navy’s flotillas, which operate separately in the East Sea and Yellow Sea. Moreover, as the Air Force’s airborne early warning (AEW) capabilities remain unverified, the service’s AEW and control operations face limitations.
Regarding the Army and Special Operation Force, the report said that even if early armed clashes and deep infiltrations were possible, given the enemy’s extensive surveillance capabilities and precision strikes, operational sustainability would be difficult to ensure, and North Korea would face limitations in maintaining supply lines and long-range mobility.
As for the Strategic Force, its missiles and nuclear weapons would serve as a deterrent and retaliatory threat, but they were at high risk of being detected before launch or intercepted, the report said. However, it also stated that, given how South Korea, the United States, and Japan’s multilayered missile defense system (Aegis–THAAD–PAC-3) reduces the threat rather than completely neutralizing it, some of North Korea’s simultaneous launches or saturation strikes would likely succeed, depending on the war’s development.
Well that's nice. Things may go badly, and most of the nuclear attacks would likely be detected before launch, but some would probably get through.
They're taking all this very seriously – threatening a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. Is Trump part of the intended audience here?
It's unfortunate that the South Korean presidency, in its endless see-sawing between hawk and dove towards the North, is now in a dove phase under president Lee Jae Myung.
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