A grotesque misalignment of incentives

le=”font-size: 11pt”>Twenty years of this misguided posture helped make October 7 possible. Hamas knew that even live-streaming its sadistic massacres would not alter the basic equation: the world would quickly focus on Israel’s reaction, invent fresh blood libels, call for “restraint” and pressure Jerusalem alone. Israelis knew that post-atrocity sympathy would be fleeting.

Fleeting? It was virtually non-existent.

And so, last month, when a ceasefire and hostage release seemed imminent, dozens of Western governments chose that fragile moment to condemn and pressure Israel while dangling recognition of Palestine – collapsing negotiations, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed: “The UK is like, well, if Israel doesn’t agree to a ceasefire by September, we’re going to recognise a Palestinian state. So if I’m Hamas, I say, you know what, let’s not allow there to be a ceasefire.”

Hamas themselves crowed that the European response justified October 7th.

If Western leaders truly did not foresee these entirely predictable consequences, they have no business making policy in the Middle East. If they did, the verdict is worse. Either way, 20 years on, the Gaza withdrawal anniversary stands as a monument to the cost of rewarding Palestinian terror and punishing Israeli compromise.

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